Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:37:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8ddb…6a89 weather 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$108 (-11%) realized −$106 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%53W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$63
14 days−$129
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$107
sports 6% −$25
other 4% −$2
crypto 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -8.4% -17.1% 33% 33% -20.3%
≤30d 145 -3.9% -13.0% 37% 34% -22.8%
≤90d 145 -3.9% -13.0% 37% 34% -22.8%
all 145 -3.9% -13.0% 37% 34% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 34% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 33% -30.2%
15% -29.0% 32% -37.0%
20% -35.9% 28% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses53 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)145 / 152
History coverage11d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? Yes 72¢ 92¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Yes 43¢ 41¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? No 42¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? No 23¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 −$5 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$15 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$6 +30%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$11 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 18 $25 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$7 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$5 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$7 +74%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $23 +$9 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$8 +379%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$4 +93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$8 +333%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$8 +244%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$18 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$5 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$5 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$4 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$5 +356%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 42¢ $5 6m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 48¢ $14 13m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY No 23¢ $4 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 78¢ $24 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 79¢ $25 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 93¢ $18 24h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 71¢ $11 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 56¢ $11 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? SELL No 75¢ $16 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.91 · official $51.08 · 254 history records