Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8ddb…420b sports 798 markets active 0h ago coverage 218d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 217d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,539 (-1%) realized −$7,899 · open +$360
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%431W / 394L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$800per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$187est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$959now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 218d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$44,340
other 23% +$2,817
world 1% −$1,997
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -40.1% -45.8% 13% 12% -93.4%
≤30d 180 -24.6% -31.8% 26% 24% -80.8%
≤90d 186 -24.4% -31.6% 27% 25% -79.4%
all 825 -14.0% -22.2% 52% 43% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 43% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 33% -29.3%
15% -36.4% 25% -36.1%
20% -42.7% 18% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$675) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$469 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$959
Realized−$7,899
Unrealized+$360
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses431 / 394
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$187
Open positions12
Markets (closed)825 / 798
History coverage218d ⚠
Avg bet$800
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 825 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 50¢ 100¢ $175 $350 +$175 (+100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $85 $250 +$165 (+194%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 43¢ 42¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 40¢ 40¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $36 $42 +$7 (+19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $37 $38 +$2 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+66%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Yes $22 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 313 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Real Betis Balompié vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Jun 23 $325 −$325 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-14? Jun 23 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $212 −$443 -209%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $629 −$629 -100%
Bulls vs. Jazz Jun 23 $4,064 −$4,064 -100%
Rayo Vallecano vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,731 −$1,731 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16? Jun 23 $4,274 −$4,274 -100%
Heat vs. Lakers Jun 23 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw? Jun 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Warriors vs. Bucks Jun 23 $3,093 −$3,093 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 23 $3,045 −$3,045 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-09? Jun 23 $272 −$272 -100%
Celtics vs. Magic Jun 23 $240 −$240 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Jun 23 $862 −$862 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $1,723 −$1,723 -100%
Will Everton vs. Fulham end in a draw? Jun 23 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Hungary vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$190 -3735%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 23 $4,394 −$4,394 -100%
Suns vs. Clippers Jun 23 $775 −$775 -100%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Jun 23 $75 −$217 -289%
Hawks vs. Kings Jun 23 $760 −$760 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Jun 23 $135 −$135 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-06? Jun 23 $819 −$819 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-11-06? Jun 23 $940 −$940 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-09? Jun 23 $513 −$513 -100%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Kings vs. Bulls Jun 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 23 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? Jun 23 $0 −$1,903 -843362%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jun 23 $2,933 −$2,933 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $557 −$557 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 23 $237 −$237 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-11-08? Jun 23 $384 −$384 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 23 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-0.5) Jun 23 $305 −$305 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 23 $315 −$315 -100%
Lakers vs. Grizzlies Jun 23 $800 −$800 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Magic Jun 23 $283 −$283 -100%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 23 $1,162 −$1,162 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $2,380 −$2,380 -100%
Warriors vs. Thunder Jun 23 $60 −$220 -367%
Spread: Bulls (-5.5) Jun 23 $255 −$255 -100%
Spread: Manchester United (-0.5) Jun 23 $185 −$185 -100%
Bucks vs. Cavaliers Jun 23 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? Jun 23 $265 −$265 -100%
Heat vs. Knicks Jun 23 $320 −$320 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 26m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $23 26m
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 27m
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 43¢ $87 28m
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $53 28m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $50 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 45¢ $127 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $87 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: Englan BUY 13¢ $77 5h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $46 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $151 15h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 23h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes $11 23h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $10 23h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $79 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $771 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 10¢ $10 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 25¢ $38 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $110 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $1 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $2 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $2 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $51 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 25¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes $31 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes $21 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $36 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 AND Sp BUY $79 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 39h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $958.63 · official $1,033.63 · 3500 history records