Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:18:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8ddc…7800 sports 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$109 (-0%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%6W / 144L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$13
politics 22% −$12
other 17% −$69
economics 14% −$5
crypto 8% −$3
world 5% −$3
culture 4% −$3
tech 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 150 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses6 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage165d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 93¢ 93¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $61 $0 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 26 $57 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 04 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $801 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $688 −$2 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $171 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 04 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 04 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $357 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 04 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $105 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $184 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 04 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $180 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $216 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $81 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $78 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 04 $194 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $263 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $78 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $197 $0 -0%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 04 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 04 $173 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 03 $87 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $384 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 03 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $541 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $89 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $223 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 93¢ $60 1h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $61 14d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $61 14d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $57 27d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $57 27d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $57 37d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $57 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $78 109d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $78 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $81 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $81 109d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $70 109d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $70 109d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $6 109d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $77 109d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $6 109d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $77 109d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 94¢ $72 109d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 94¢ $72 109d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $83 109d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $83 109d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $73 109d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $73 109d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $68 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $69 109d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $80 109d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 109d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $80 109d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 93¢ $75 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.26 · official $60.26 (match) · 777 history records