Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8D 0x8ddd…2868 crypto 1069 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$709 (+3%) realized +$709 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR81%break-even
Win rate83%889W / 180L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day87.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$17
14 days+$192
30 days+$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +81%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 +0.4% -9.2% 83% 81% -9.3%
≤30d 870 +1.4% -8.2% 83% 81% -8.4%
≤90d 1069 +2.9% -6.9% 83% 81% -8.3%
all 1069 +2.9% -6.9% 83% 81% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 81% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 9% -17.1%
15% -23.9% 0% -25.1%
20% -31.4% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$709
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses889 / 180
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1069 / 1069
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day87.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1069 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$10 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $33 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$5 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $34 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $36 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $34 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$5 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $34 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $36 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$5 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $34 +$6 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $34 +$6 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$19 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $34 +$6 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$17 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $34 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $34 +$6 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$4 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $36 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $33 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $17 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $32 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $22 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $19 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $11 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $35 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $6 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $19 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records