trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 83¢ | 83¢ | $33 | $33 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $36 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $33 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $2 | +$1 | +30% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 09 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 08 | $66 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $37 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | Jun 26 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? | Jun 03 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | May 28 | $12 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? | May 27 | $16 | −$1 | -6% |
| Trump signs national abortion ban? | Apr 06 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum | Apr 04 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Apr 03 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 01 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | Mar 31 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Mar 30 | $16 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 28 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? | Mar 24 | $1 | $0 | -19% |
| Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? | Mar 21 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 21 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 19 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 18 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? | Mar 17 | $14 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Donald Trump say "Milady" during Crypto Summit on Friday? | Mar 11 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 40% | 20% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +4.7% | -5.3% | 33% | 17% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +4.7% | -5.3% | 33% | 17% | -9.9% |
| all | 26 | -3.6% | -12.8% | 42% | 4% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.8% | 4% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -21.1% | 4% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -28.7% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -35.7% | 0% | -33.5% |