Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:47:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8de1…459d world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 413d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$872 (+6%) realized +$851 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate90%19W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$685per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$3,844now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$421
other 28% +$257
politics 27% +$151
economics 6% +$37
culture 3% +$13
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +9.2% -1.2% 100% 0% -0.7%
≤90d 6 +6.6% -3.6% 83% 0% -2.7%
all 21 +2.2% -7.5% 90% 5% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 5% -3.0%
10% -16.4% 5% -12.3%
15% -24.5% 5% -20.7%
20% -31.9% 0% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$633) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$51 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.43 per $1 lost it wins $9.43
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

413d coverage
Net worth$3,844
Realized+$851
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses19 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage413d
Avg bet$685
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,279 $3,278 −$2 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 94¢ $544 $567 +$22 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $161 +$11 +7%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $213 +$21 +10%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $633 +$59 +9%
Will Cho Gil-hyeong win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $1,424 +$147 +10%
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 16 $2,699 +$155 +6%
Will Song Ki-sub win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial el Apr 07 $81 −$2 -3%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Feb 12 $512 +$29 +6%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Feb 12 $395 +$12 +3%
Will Anxiety (Doechii) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Feb 02 $536 +$13 +2%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $300 +$22 +7%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $500 +$14 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $57 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $53 +$5 +9%
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the Dec 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election? Dec 04 $896 +$57 +6%
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Nov 06 $813 +$82 +10%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $1,253 +$79 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $526 +$236 +45%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 21 $518 +$8 +2%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 03 $200 +$13 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $592 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $888 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $395 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $493 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $493 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $197 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $546 23d
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? BUY No 92¢ $336 36d
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? BUY No 92¢ $92 36d
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? BUY No 92¢ $11 36d
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? BUY No 92¢ $11 36d
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi SELL No 99¢ $250 42d
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? BUY Yes 93¢ $95 42d
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? BUY Yes 93¢ $66 42d
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 91¢ $130 42d
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 90¢ $83 42d
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? BUY No 91¢ $62 42d
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? BUY No 91¢ $41 42d
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi SELL No 100¢ $1,842 43d
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? BUY No 89¢ $81 81d
Will Song Ki-sub win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial el SELL No 94¢ $79 81d
Will Cho Gil-hyeong win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial BUY No 98¢ $26 102d
Will Cho Gil-hyeong win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial BUY No 97¢ $350 102d
Will Cho Gil-hyeong win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial BUY No 92¢ $8 102d
Will Song Ki-sub win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial el BUY No 97¢ $81 102d
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi SELL No 98¢ $281 102d
Will Cho Gil-hyeong win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial BUY No 90¢ $46 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,844.39 · official $3,844.99 (match) · 133 history records