Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8de2…195a other 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-1%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%21W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$21
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$19
politics 24% −$14
sports 24% −$72
crypto 9% −$3
economics 6% −$3
culture 3% −$1
world 2% −$3
finance 2% $0
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 58 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 104 -0.8% -10.2% 15% 0% -10.2%
all 117 -0.7% -10.2% 18% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses21 / 96
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage97d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 97¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $179 +$1 +1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $138 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $57 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $60 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $198 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $52 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 12 $61 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $63 $0 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $232 −$3 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $111 $0 +0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $136 −$1 -1%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $521 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $73 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $134 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $23 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $16 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $338 −$6 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $118 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $99 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $46 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $154 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $58 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 23 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $53 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $51 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $64 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $64 5h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 6h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $60 14h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 19h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $63 19h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $63 27h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $56 28h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $57 33h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $60 33h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $60 40h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 40h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $60 44h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $65 45h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $65 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $60 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $61 3d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $61 3d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 3d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $57 3d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $57 3d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.83 · official $50.83 (match) · 462 history records