Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8de5…ddac world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$1
other 21% +$2
politics 11% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 16 +0.6% -9.0% 56% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 16 +0.6% -9.0% 56% 0% -9.0%
all 42 +0.8% -8.8% 36% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.84 per $1 lost it wins $3.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage284d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $26 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $92 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $44 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $2 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $1 $0 +35%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Sep 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 08 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $26 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $26 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 38h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $23 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $28 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $43 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $32 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $14 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $42 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.27 · official $38.10 (match) · 157 history records