Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8de5…2b04
sports · 98 markets active 2h ago
5.0score
+$70,197 +85%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$59,520 · open +$10,560
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$26,013
Realized+$59,520
Unrealized+$10,560
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses42 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions8
Markets (closed)90 / 98
History coverage93d
Avg bet$848
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 8 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$7,563
30 days−$9,311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $13,504 $23,705 +$10,201 (+76%)
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 57¢ 100¢ $668 $1,176 +$508 (+76%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? No 70¢ 69¢ $698 $685 −$13 (-2%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 10¢ $225 $189 −$37 (-16%)
Will MrBeast get married by December 31? No 49¢ 34¢ $149 $104 −$45 (-30%)
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $62 $66 +$4 (+6%)
Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026? Yes 88¢ 50¢ $86 $49 −$37 (-43%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $61 $40 −$21 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Don Toliver have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 02 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Alex Warren have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 02 $194 −$192 -99%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 02 $8,256 −$8,170 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1,699 +$851 +50%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $155 +$345 +223%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $790 −$790 -100%
Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5 May 18 $134 +$156 +116%
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in May? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $1,456 −$1,456 -100%
Will "Doors - Noah Kahan" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this May 08 $5,342 +$33,673 +630%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this we May 08 $7,458 +$46,041 +617%
Will Alex Warren have a #1 hit in April? May 02 $98 +$10 +10%
Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in April? May 02 $137 +$7 +5%
Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in April? May 02 $176 +$18 +10%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in April? May 02 $176 +$21 +12%
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in April? May 02 $253 +$54 +21%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? May 02 $655 −$655 -100%
Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in April? May 02 $4,893 −$4,624 -94%
Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April? May 02 $7,374 −$6,370 -86%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 06 $2,245 −$2,245 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $290 +$210 +72%
Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Albania qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? Apr 03 $154 +$139 +90%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 21 $90 +$110 +122%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $580 +$420 +72%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $100 +$400 +400%
Oscars Bingo Mar 16 $165 +$135 +82%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1,118 +$82 +7%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 16 $460 +$217 +47%
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98t Mar 16 $384 −$384 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $314 +$237 +76%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $444 +$156 +35%
Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th A Mar 16 $544 +$256 +47%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 16 $343 +$357 +104%
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $330 −$330 -100%
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) Mar 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $329 −$329 -100%
Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5) Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $315 −$315 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 15 $300 +$300 +100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Mar 15 $252 +$468 +186%
FC Barcelona vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $111 −$111 -100%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Mar 15 $165 +$335 +203%
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5) Mar 15 $532 +$668 +126%
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5) Mar 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Los Angeles FC vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $241 +$283 +118%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $971 −$971 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
culture 43% +$86,926
other 37% −$22,778
sports 15% +$8,695
world 4% −$2,763
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes $8 2h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes $7 2h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 15¢ $8 5h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 16¢ $4 5h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 17¢ $15 5h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 17¢ $15 16h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 17¢ $5 16h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 16¢ $17 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 16¢ $5 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 17¢ $17 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 16¢ $15 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 16¢ $5 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 15¢ $2 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 12¢ $17 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 14¢ $56 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 14¢ $5 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 14¢ $1 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 16¢ $3 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 16¢ $74 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 14¢ $1 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 14¢ $2 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 14¢ $3 17h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 16¢ $0 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -23.3% -30.6% 33% 33% -75.6%
≤90d 67 +17.7% +6.5% 51% 45% +84.2%
all 90 +48.0% +33.9% 47% 42% +63.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.9% 42% +63.9%
10% +21.1% 40% +48.2%
15% ← realistic here +9.4% 39% +33.9%
20% -1.3% 36% +20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,012.97 · official $26,013.29 (match) · 3500 history records