Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8de6…8b90
crypto · 344 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,568 -59%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,576 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized−$1,576
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses41 / 302
Open positions1
Markets (closed)343 / 344
History coverage142d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 343 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$65
14 days−$83
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Yes 15¢ 48¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+224%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 14? No 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1AM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? No 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25? No 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 28? No 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 9? No 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 15? No 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 23? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? No 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? No 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$8 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $15 −$14 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$29 +392%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$6 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$5 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 −$9 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $5 +$6 +112%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $11 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $8 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $8 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 17 $6 −$2 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $22 −$20 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $2 +$15 +696%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 15 $3 −$2 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14? May 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1PM ET May 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $5 +$31 +634%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $8 −$8 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $5 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10? May 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9? May 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? May 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$1,565
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL No 2¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 6¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 0¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 0¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 0¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 0¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 90¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 90¢ $16 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 80¢ $6 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 75¢ $8 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 1¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 17¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 10¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 1¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 17¢ $4 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 1¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY No 0¢ $7 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-61.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -36.6% -42.7% 20% 13% -54.4%
≤30d 35 -21.0% -28.5% 17% 14% -49.7%
≤90d 136 -50.9% -55.6% 12% 11% -70.3%
all 343 -57.7% -61.7% 12% 11% -66.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.7% 11% -66.4%
10% -65.4% 11% -69.6%
15% -68.7% 10% -72.6%
20% -71.8% 9% -75.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.20 · official $3.92 · 1517 history records