Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8de6…8b3c sports 1087 markets active 4h ago coverage 37d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$903 (-1%) realized −$903 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate61%661W / 426L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day73.1pace
Fees−$320est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$46
14 days+$278
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$2,117
sports 41% +$2,452
finance 0% +$8
world 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +17.1% +6.0% 52% 52% -2.9%
≤30d 631 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 55% -9.3%
≤90d 1087 +0.3% -9.2% 61% 56% -9.0%
all 1087 +0.3% -9.2% 61% 56% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 56% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 51% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 37% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 24% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$55 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$903
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses661 / 426
Est. fees paid−$320
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1087 / 1087
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day73.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1087 Trades
no open positions (260 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora Jun 17 $8 +$17 +206%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $14 +$17 +119%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $20 +$11 +57%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $10 +$21 +216%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $18 +$13 +70%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 15 $16 $0 -2%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $18 +$13 +73%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $18 −$18 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 15 $13 +$19 +146%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $19 +$12 +62%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $18 +$13 +70%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $14 +$11 +76%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $17 +$15 +90%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $18 +$14 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $18 +$15 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $17 +$15 +85%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $9 +$21 +226%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 13 $32 −$31 -99%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $23 −$23 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $18 +$13 +73%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $16 +$15 +97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $6 +$24 +400%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $18 +$13 +72%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $28 +$3 +12%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 11 $17 +$14 +79%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $9 +$22 +238%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 10 $19 +$11 +60%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $17 +$14 +86%
Daniel vs. Nava: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 10 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $17 −$17 -99%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $10 +$20 +206%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Lloyd Harris Jun 10 $153 $0 +0%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $32 +$21 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora BUY Legia Warszawa 32¢ $8 4h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 45¢ $14 14h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 35¢ $11 30h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $10 37h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 45¢ $14 45h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 61¢ $19 2d
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 58¢ $18 2d
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 51¢ $16 2d
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 57¢ $18 2d
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 31¢ $10 2d
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 63¢ $20 2d
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) BUY Hurricanes 40¢ $13 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $9 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $16 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 61¢ $19 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $18 2d
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 57¢ $18 3d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 56¢ $14 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 54¢ $17 3d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $15 3d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $15 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $18 3d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 40¢ $12 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 55¢ $18 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 52¢ $17 3d
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $15 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 65¢ $16 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 52¢ $16 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 65¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.35 · official $15.35 (match) · 3500 history records