Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8de6…2938 other 757 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 279d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,508 (-1%) realized −$13,786 · open +$278
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%722W / 10L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,801per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$14,288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days+$438
14 days+$638
30 days−$24,715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% +$3,569
other 26% +$5,159
crypto 15% +$1,043
sports 12% −$28,280
world 10% −$5
economics 6% +$650
weather 2% +$44
tech 1% +$132
culture 1% +$174
finance 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.0% -8.6% 95% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 77 -1.0% -10.5% 96% 1% -16.5%
≤90d 241 -1.4% -10.8% 96% 0% -12.3%
all 732 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 2% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -18.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$2,371) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$3,245 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$14,288
Realized−$13,786
Unrealized+$278
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses722 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions25
Markets (closed)732 / 757
History coverage280d ⚠
Avg bet$2,801
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Macron out by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $5,389 $5,486 +$97 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $2,212 $2,251 +$39 (+2%)
French election called by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $1,050 $1,151 +$101 (+10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $972 $960 −$12 (-1%)
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $718 $735 +$17 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $723 $728 +$5 (+1%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $657 $645 −$13 (-2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $454 $464 +$10 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $321 $323 +$2 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $283 $288 +$4 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $162 $198 +$36 (+22%)
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No 97¢ 97¢ $161 $162 +$1 (+1%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $139 $139 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $160 $136 −$24 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $110 $126 +$16 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $85 $117 +$32 (+38%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $99 $68 −$30 (-31%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $84 $59 −$24 (-29%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $56 +$16 (+41%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $53 $56 +$4 (+7%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $24 −$2 (-6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Germany be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 21 $69 $0 +0%
Will Stade Francais win? Jun 20 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 20 $114 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,886 +$114 +4%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $984 +$16 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $28,999 +$35 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,190 +$9 +1%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $22,133 +$168 +1%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $275 $0 +0%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Jun 18 $210 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $15,956 +$44 +0%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11,100 +$11 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,096 +$14 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $4,307 +$8 +0%
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Jun 14 $1,994 +$6 +0%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $130 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,389 +$29 +2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $1,755 −$22 -1%
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $14,006 +$13 +0%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $572 +$6 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 12 $3,586 +$14 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 12 $6,280 +$12 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $3,217 +$15 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $5,828 +$52 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $1,027 +$6 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $7,914 +$26 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $488 +$12 +3%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $80 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $538 +$4 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $13,069 +$22 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $69 $0 +0%
Will India win? Jun 08 $249 +$1 +0%
Will Afghanistan win? Jun 08 $1,576 +$4 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $1,747 +$7 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 07 $250 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1,968 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $2,575 +$2 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $488 +$12 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 04 $990 +$10 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,692 +$8 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 2? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $130 +$20 +16%
Will voter turnout be less than 85% in the 2026 Maltese general electi Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $327 +$3 +1%
Will voter turnout be between 90% and 95% in the 2026 Maltese general Jun 01 $446 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $496 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $139 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $76 4h
Will the match end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $114 14h
Will Stade Francais win? BUY No 96¢ $26 15h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $2,886 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $16,676 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,524 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,411 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,265 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $93 39h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $973 41h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $4,708 3d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $263 3d
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $210 3d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $1,712 3d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $1,211 3d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $220 3d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $1,652 3d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $160 3d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $275 3d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $419 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,287.64 · official $14,287.64 (match) · 3500 history records