Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

8D 0x8dea…4290 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$184 (+17%) realized +$187 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%9W / 11L

Drawdown77%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$18est.

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$62

7 days+$62

14 days+$50

30 days+$234

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-21.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-40.6%	-46.3%	40%	40%	+26.3%
≤30d	8	-40.0%	-45.8%	38%	38%	+44.7%
≤90d	20	-12.9%	-21.2%	45%	45%	+8.7%
all	20	-12.9%	-21.2%	45%	45%	+8.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.2%	45%	+8.7%
10%	-28.7%	40%	-1.7%
15%	-35.6%	40%	-11.2%
20%	-41.9%	30%	-19.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +11% → late -37% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$46 vs −$19 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage

Net worth$58

Realized+$187

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses9 / 11

Est. fees paid−$18

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage191d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown77%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	60¢	57¢	$60	$57	−$3 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$49	+$26	+53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$100	+$44	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Jun 18	$4	−$4	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-94%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 South Africa?	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-97%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Jun 01	$222	+$183	+83%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore	Apr 10	$155	−$153	-99%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants	Apr 09	$120	+$58	+48%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans	Apr 08	$52	+$48	+93%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians	Apr 08	$22	+$28	+126%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Pakistan (Game 1)	Apr 07	$0	$0	-100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals	Apr 07	$27	−$10	-37%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Apr 07	$10	−$10	-100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki	Apr 07	$14	+$7	+55%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings	Apr 07	$21	+$3	+16%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants	Apr 05	$15	+$12	+80%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Apr 04	$12	−$1	-8%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians	Apr 04	$155	−$17	-11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$61	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	96¢	$75	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$49	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	92¢	$67	24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	92¢	$77	24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$100	27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$2	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$2	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$2	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$2	30h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	8d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 South Africa?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	8d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru	54¢	$222	19d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore	BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore	10¢	$4	70d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore	BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore	20¢	$37	70d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore	BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore	20¢	$13	70d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore	BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore	33¢	$50	70d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore	BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore	49¢	$24	70d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore	BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore	53¢	$26	71d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants	SELL Lucknow Super Giants	100¢	$70	71d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants	SELL Lucknow Super Giants	17¢	$12	71d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants	BUY Lucknow Super Giants	35¢	$50	71d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants	SELL Kolkata Knight Riders	67¢	$30	71d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants	BUY Kolkata Knight Riders	33¢	$15	71d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants	SELL Lucknow Super Giants	67¢	$66	71d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants	BUY Lucknow Super Giants	55¢	$55	71d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans	SELL Delhi Capitals	92¢	$100	72d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans	BUY Delhi Capitals	31¢	$12	72d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans	BUY Delhi Capitals	55¢	$40	72d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians	SELL Mumbai Indians	1¢	$1	73d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.50 · official $57.50 (match) · 83 history records