Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8dec…46e0
weather · 1177 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$3,670 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,920 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,350
Realized+$4,920
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1150 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1162 / 1177
History coverage125d
Avg bet$797
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 15 History 1162 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$277
14 days−$531
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,812 $1,811 −$1 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $659 $659 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $474 $475 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $388 $390 +$2 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $350 $349 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $338 $338 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $336 $335 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $316 $316 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $146 $146 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $145 $144 −$1 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $345 $0 −$345 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,611 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $641 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,649 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $296 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $404 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $313 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,124 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $247 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $694 +$14 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $209 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $405 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $649 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $117 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $526 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $336 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $322 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $109 $0 +0%
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $221 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2,852 +$11 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $534 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $196 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $379 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $413 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $330 +$7 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $496 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $309 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $906 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $824 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 11? Jun 11 $576 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3,778 +$4 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,716 +$9 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on June 11? Jun 11 $397 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 11? Jun 11 $316 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $290 $0 +0%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $287 +$4 +1%
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $215 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,366 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $336 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,444 +$11 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $189 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 84% +$1,495
finance 7% +$2,683
other 5% +$540
tech 3% +$144
politics 1% +$64
sports 0% +$6
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $316 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $145 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $336 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $713 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $350 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $99 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $141 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $474 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,099 4h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $84 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $338 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $659 6h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $95 6h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $194 6h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $207 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 14h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $25 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $68 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $168 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $313 17h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,404 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $32 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $364 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,124 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 480 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 1007 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 0% -9.3%
all 1162 +0.6% -8.9% 99% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 1% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,349.65 · official $5,349.65 (match) · 3500 history records