Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dee…e373 sports 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$300 (-3%) realized −$215 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$57
other 37% −$436
crypto 7% −$577
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -27.6% -34.5% 38% 30% -19.2%
≤30d 45 -22.6% -29.9% 42% 36% -16.6%
≤90d 45 -22.6% -29.9% 42% 36% -16.6%
all 45 -22.6% -29.9% 42% 36% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 36% -16.6%
10% -36.6% 24% -24.6%
15% -42.8% 16% -31.9%
20% -48.4% 9% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$99 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$215
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage10d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $127 $52 −$75 (-59%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Under 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $34 −$8 -25%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $13 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$30 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $115 −$115 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $109 −$103 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $107 +$22 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 27 $444 −$31 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $160 +$289 +180%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $99 −$41 -41%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $183 −$87 -48%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $181 −$76 -42%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$5 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $111 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $339 −$339 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $913 −$564 -62%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $225 −$223 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $720 +$193 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $661 +$57 +9%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $1,093 +$87 +8%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $930 −$388 -42%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $535 +$142 +27%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $474 +$60 +13%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $628 +$146 +23%
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag Jun 21 $201 +$57 +28%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $496 +$76 +15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $360 +$136 +38%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $161 +$199 +123%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $314 −$153 -49%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $438 +$63 +14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $273 +$101 +37%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $26 −$6 -24%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $22 +$9 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $227 +$44 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1m
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 4¢ $3 3m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $12 18m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 4¢ $10 18m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 14¢ $22 18m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 13¢ $22 22m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 63¢ $22 27m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 29m
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 31m
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $9 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $25 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $13 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $34 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $8 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $8 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $4 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $11 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $4 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.41 · official $52.41 (match) · 165 history records