Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8dee…412b sports 1188 markets active 7h ago coverage 620d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Covers last 619d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16,957 (+5%) realized +$16,450 · open +$507
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%499W / 641L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$2,055est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,007now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 620d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$27,708
other 25% +$6,932
politics 3% +$2,621
crypto 1% −$1,007
world 0% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 +28.3% +16.1% 54% 53% +12.3%
≤30d 216 +24.8% +12.9% 53% 53% +12.3%
≤90d 216 +24.8% +12.9% 53% 53% +12.3%
all 1140 +6.1% -4.0% 44% 44% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 44% -0.2%
10% -13.2% 43% -9.8%
15% -21.6% 43% -18.5%
20% -29.3% 42% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$398 vs −$254 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$2,007
Realized+$16,450
Unrealized+$507
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses499 / 641
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$2,055
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1140 / 1188
History coverage620d ⚠
Avg bet$311
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1,500 $2,007 +$507 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,302 +$1,107 +85%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $811 +$644 +79%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $509 +$773 +152%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $509 +$773 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $508 +$562 +111%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 +$4 +376%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $519 +$1,126 +217%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $614 +$389 +63%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $814 +$1,137 +140%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $507 +$419 +83%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $547 −$540 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $514 +$4,486 +874%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $818 +$2,660 +325%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,032 +$2,510 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $896 +$604 +67%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $450 −$440 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,022 +$2,546 +249%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,077 −$2,059 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $607 +$393 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $308 −$300 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,524 +$1,733 +114%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $227 −$222 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $513 −$500 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $511 +$1,213 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,013 +$773 +76%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $68 −$66 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,524 −$1,500 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,010 +$503 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $506 +$287 +57%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $620 +$380 +61%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 14 $496 +$704 +142%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $712 +$971 +136%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $411 −$400 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,524 −$1,500 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,017 +$1,361 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $663 6h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $97 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $507 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $23 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $509 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $509 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $811 7h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $607 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $7 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $1 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $508 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $204 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $814 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $1,018 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $255 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $60 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1,015 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $2 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 17¢ $102 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $205 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $204 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $305 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $508 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $547 14h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 54¢ $507 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $169 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,006.76 · official $2,006.76 (match) · 3438 history records