Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8def…07fb other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate14%14W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$9
politics 28% −$5
sports 5% +$8
economics 5% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 12% -9.6%
all 98 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 12% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 11% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 10% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 84
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage86d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $252 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $206 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $176 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $179 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $164 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $183 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $279 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $182 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $327 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $331 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $180 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $177 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $166 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $168 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $183 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $354 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $366 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $358 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $350 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $169 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $181 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $332 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $204 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $177 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $356 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $174 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $362 $0 -0%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $357 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $190 $0 -0%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $175 $0 -0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $366 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $186 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $187 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 27h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 21d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $37 22d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 23d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $31 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $79 26d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 27d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 27d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 28d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 28d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $39 29d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $39 29d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $182 33d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $182 33d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $176 34d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $176 35d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $175 35d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $176 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.67 · official $135.67 (match) · 269 history records