Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8df1…9d56 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$256 (-22%) realized −$256 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 239d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$279
sports 9% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.1% -14.2% 55% 55% -10.1%
≤30d 11 -5.1% -14.2% 55% 55% -10.1%
≤90d 11 -5.1% -14.2% 55% 55% -10.1%
all 22 -20.6% -28.2% 36% 36% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 36% -30.0%
10% -35.0% 32% -36.7%
15% -41.3% 32% -42.8%
20% -47.1% 32% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$49 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$256
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage239d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $93 +$94 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $62 +$71 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $57 +$41 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $67 +$56 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Oct 22 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Oct 22 $29 +$60 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Oct 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Oct 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Oct 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Oct 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Oct 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Oct 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Oct 22 $25 +$75 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Oct 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Oct 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $187 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $133 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records