Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8D 0x8df7…6d8a sports 15 markets active 2d ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$591 (-20%) realized −$591 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$448
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$72
other 15% −$430
crypto 4% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 13 -49.6% -54.4% 31% 31% -25.2%
≤90d 13 -49.6% -54.4% 31% 31% -25.2%
all 15 -46.5% -51.6% 33% 33% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.6% 33% -28.4%
10% -56.3% 27% -35.2%
15% -60.5% 27% -41.5%
20% -64.4% 7% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$138 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$591
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage226d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $355 −$350 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $505 +$239 +47%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $200 +$305 +153%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $302 +$109 +36%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $402 +$79 +20%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 28 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $100 +$46 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 45h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $355 7d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $744 8d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $202 8d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $304 8d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $302 10d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 10d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $302 10d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $481 10d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $402 11d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 11d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 11d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $100 178d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $100 178d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 96¢ $505 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 38¢ $200 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 36¢ $17 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 35¢ $129 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $100 228d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records