Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8df8…a552 sports 402 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$277 (-3%) realized −$247 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%197W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$60
14 days−$43
30 days−$1,318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$31
crypto 18% −$210
other 7% −$52
world 2% +$3
politics 0% −$29
tech 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -5.9% -14.9% 49% 48% -5.8%
≤30d 207 -37.8% -43.7% 33% 32% -35.6%
≤90d 330 -7.6% -16.4% 49% 49% -13.1%
all 392 -6.2% -15.2% 50% 49% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 49% -12.4%
10% -23.3% 47% -20.8%
15% -30.7% 42% -28.4%
20% -37.5% 32% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$247
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses197 / 195
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions8
Markets (closed)392 / 402
History coverage190d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+44%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 75¢ 44¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-60%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs PlayTime 38¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $49 +$23 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$30 +99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $40 +$48 +122%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $55 −$37 -69%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 +$15 +128%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $38 +$19 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 +$23 +152%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $36 −$36 -99%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $22 +$29 +132%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $18 +$11 +59%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$9 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $54 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$14 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$13 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$12 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $55 +$25 +46%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 +$29 +110%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$11 -85%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$27 -77%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 +$10 +30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $47 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $27 +$36 +132%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$9 +84%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $39 +$141 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $48 +$11 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $41 +$9 +22%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $28 +$19 +68%
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 42m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 38¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 38¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 38¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 38¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 38¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 38¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 38¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 38¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $61 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $59 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 58¢ $35 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL PlayTime 100¢ $88 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 44¢ $40 6h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 39¢ $11 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 34¢ $38 7h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 45¢ $14 7h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 67¢ $28 7h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $57 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 39¢ $16 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $38 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $38 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 39¢ $15 9h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 67¢ $36 9h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 100¢ $52 9h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $12 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 42¢ $22 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.58 · official $71.58 (match) · 882 history records