Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8df9…468c world 363 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$32,286 (+20%) realized +$32,118 · open +$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%180W / 141L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$11,156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$640
politics 17% +$2,963
other 8% −$1,075
crypto 2% +$946
sports 2% +$107
finance 1% +$347
economics 0% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +32.8% +20.2% 79% 50% +35.8%
≤30d 101 +15.7% +4.7% 65% 46% +3.6%
≤90d 318 +10.7% +0.2% 56% 33% -2.6%
all 321 +14.1% +3.3% 56% 33% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.3% 33% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -6.6% 24% -15.1%
15% -15.6% 17% -23.3%
20% -23.9% 13% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$207 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$11,156
Realized+$32,118
Unrealized+$168
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses180 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions42
Markets (closed)321 / 363
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$440
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2,365 $2,299 −$66 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 55¢ $1,892 $2,260 +$368 (+19%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 80¢ $979 $1,942 +$963 (+98%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $900 $724 −$176 (-20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $300 $406 +$106 (+35%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $310 $332 +$22 (+7%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 34¢ $139 $317 +$178 (+128%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 58¢ 83¢ $200 $286 +$86 (+43%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $432 $270 −$162 (-37%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $232 $256 +$24 (+10%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $200 $223 +$23 (+12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $166 $178 +$12 (+7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $138 +$38 (+38%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $200 $105 −$95 (-47%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes 32¢ 22¢ $150 $104 −$46 (-31%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Yes 91¢ 91¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $90 $82 −$8 (-8%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 68¢ $78 $67 −$10 (-13%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $108 $61 −$47 (-44%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $400 $52 −$348 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $92 +$8 +9%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $58 +$42 +72%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $1,234 +$1,557 +126%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $179 +$44 +24%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $92 +$8 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $700 +$1,417 +202%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $596 +$257 +43%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $276 +$1,082 +392%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -94%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $92 +$8 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $190 −$133 -70%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $89 +$11 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $874 −$777 -89%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $92 +$8 +9%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $492 +$168 +34%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $171 +$129 +75%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $91 +$9 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $1,962 +$551 +28%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $869 +$133 +15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $454 −$83 -18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$11 -44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $156 +$44 +28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $92 +$8 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $85 +$98 +116%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $33 +$3 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $219 −$219 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $93 −$93 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $115 −$61 -53%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 08 $80 +$7 +9%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $246 +$554 +225%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $631 +$269 +43%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $243 +$63 +26%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $737 +$213 +29%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $30 +$3 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $74 +$49 +67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $327 −$316 -97%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 07 $303 −$10 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $76 +$36 +47%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $95 +$5 +5%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $67 +$33 +49%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $1,139 +$60 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3,061 +$942 +31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 03 $40 −$40 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $125 −$125 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $567 +$352 +62%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $905 +$10 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,327 −$1,320 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $200 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,837 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $280 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 14¢ $223 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 58¢ $34 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 58¢ $6 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 58¢ $2 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $200 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $200 22h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 22h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 35h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,200 42h
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $54 42h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $100 2d
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 23¢ $19 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 23¢ $4 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $15 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $22 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $42 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $300 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 38¢ $500 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $200 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $100 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 97¢ $1,358 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $100 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $200 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 16¢ $32 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,155.96 · official $11,155.99 (match) · 3500 history records