Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8D 0x8dff…6743 sports 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 502d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$1,021 (+3%) realized +$962 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate51%23W / 22L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2,269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$961
7 days+$816
14 days+$816
30 days+$816
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$263
sports 9% +$135
other 5% +$741
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +85.1% +67.5% 59% 48% +18.0%
≤30d 29 +85.1% +67.5% 59% 48% +18.0%
≤90d 39 +42.8% +29.2% 46% 36% +15.9%
all 45 +35.0% +22.1% 51% 31% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.1% 31% -6.6%
10% +10.4% 27% -15.6%
15% -0.2% 27% -23.7%
20% -10.0% 24% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +108% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$39 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

502d coverage
Net worth$2,269
Realized+$962
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses23 / 22
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions73
Markets (closed)45 / 118
History coverage502d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 73 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime? No 44¢ 100¢ $54 $123 +$69 (+127%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? No 55¢ 54¢ $78 $76 −$2 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 36¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Germany leading at halftime? No 56¢ 54¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-4%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 100¢ $26 $62 +$36 (+140%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 42¢ $64 $60 −$4 (-6%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? No 59¢ 58¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? No 56¢ 57¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+3%)
United States leading at halftime? No 56¢ 56¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 39¢ 38¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $38 $54 +$16 (+41%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 44¢ 44¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? No 60¢ 60¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? No 60¢ 59¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
England leading at halftime? No 61¢ 58¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? No 59¢ 58¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 32¢ 32¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? No 77¢ 74¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-3%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? No 57¢ 55¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-4%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 72¢ 72¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 35¢ 34¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mexico 23¢ 22¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$154 +307%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 +$11 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 +$12 +129%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $52 +$50 +96%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $89 +$33 +37%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $143 +$21 +14%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $179 +$26 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $93 +$7 +7%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$7 +7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $9 −$1 -6%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $60 −$59 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $53 −$52 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 +$483 +1204%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 +$355 +785%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $119 +$284 +238%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $463 −$161 -35%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $465 +$41 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $330 −$324 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $28 +$76 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 +$52 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $90 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 20? May 06 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 18? Oct 20 $5 $0 +5%
Will Solana hit $400 by February 28 2025? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? May 10 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,400 on January 31? Feb 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $30,805 +$287 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $46 6m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $46 6m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $27 7m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $49 21m
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $50 21m
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 50m
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 51¢ $10 51m
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $11 52m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $11 52m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $7 52m
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $12 53m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 39¢ $8 53m
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $28 57m
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $7 59m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 53¢ $11 59m
France leading at halftime? BUY No 32¢ $7 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 12¢ $2 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $5 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $26 1h
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? BUY No 77¢ $46 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 32¢ $34 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 12¢ $21 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $40 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $37 1h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $50 1h
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $47 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $32 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $49 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $28 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $22 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,269.14 · official $2,269.16 (match) · 292 history records