Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8D 0x8dff…e6a9 world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-16%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$25
world 37% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -17.6% -25.5% 50% 50% -24.1%
≤30d 2 -17.6% -25.5% 50% 50% -24.1%
≤90d 2 -17.6% -25.5% 50% 50% -24.1%
all 6 -21.3% -28.8% 33% 33% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 33% -25.9%
10% -35.6% 33% -33.0%
15% -41.8% 33% -39.5%
20% -47.5% 33% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$37 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage139d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $81 +$52 +65%
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $24 +$50 +207%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $133 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 59¢ $81 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 59¢ $78 3h
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 95¢ $74 120d
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 129d
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $23 129d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 139d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records