Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e09…b665 crypto 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$229 (-14%) realized −$227 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%28W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$223
other 12% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -23.4% -30.7% 37% 36% -21.8%
≤30d 75 -23.4% -30.7% 37% 36% -21.8%
≤90d 75 -23.4% -30.7% 37% 36% -21.8%
all 75 -23.4% -30.7% 37% 36% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 36% -21.8%
10% -37.3% 36% -29.2%
15% -43.4% 35% -36.1%
20% -48.9% 29% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized−$227
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses28 / 47
Open positions5
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$17 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$32 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$36 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$19 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$28 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$44 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$35 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$34 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$37 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$36 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$55 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$26 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$26 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$31 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $48 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $73 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $42 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $69 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $41 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $41 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.80 · official $244.81 (match) · 128 history records