Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e09…f00b
other · 23 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$13 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$30
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)14 / 23
History coverage98d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 9 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+212%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Under 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Bangladesh 32¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-03-07? Yes 53¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-03-07? Yes 19¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Trump say "BRICS" this week? (March 8) Yes 30¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 65¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 12 $7 −$6 -84%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $22 +$7 +33%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9? Mar 13 $5 +$4 +82%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Auckland FC vs. Perth Glory FC end in a draw? Mar 08 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw? Mar 07 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 07 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 07 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Trump say "BRICS" this week? (March 8) Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$9
sports 27% −$9
crypto 12% +$5
politics 7% −$5
finance 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? BUY Yes $2 55m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on SELL $1 58m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 10¢ $7 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $2 1h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 1h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan BUY Bangladesh 32¢ $2 91d
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 16¢ $1 91d
Will Auckland FC vs. Perth Glory FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 96d
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 96d
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-03-07? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 97d
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 97d
Will Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 97d
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 97d
Will Auckland FC vs. Perth Glory FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 97d
Will Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 97d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-03-07? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 97d
Will Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 97d
Will Sydney FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 97d
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-03-07? SELL Yes 65¢ $11 97d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 97d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9? BUY Down 55¢ $5 97d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 97d
Will Trump say "BRICS" this week? (March 8) BUY Yes 30¢ $5 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -6.1%
≤30d 2 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -6.1%
≤90d 2 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -6.1%
all 14 -21.5% -28.9% 50% 50% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 50% -24.8%
10% -35.7% 36% -32.0%
15% -42.0% 29% -38.6%
20% -47.6% 21% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.56 · official $29.56 (match) · 42 history records