Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8E 0x8e11…b4a4 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+4%) realized +$13 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$20
sports 8% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 67% 67% -6.1%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 67% 67% -6.1%
≤90d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 67% 67% -6.1%
all 6 -0.1% -9.7% 67% 67% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 67% -6.1%
10% -18.3% 67% -15.0%
15% -26.2% 50% -23.3%
20% -33.4% 33% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$81 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Under 35¢ 52¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+49%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 62¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 +$78 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $160 −$158 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$58 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $82 +$20 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $55 +$26 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $25 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $20 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $111 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $160 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $82 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $55 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.99 · official $54.99 (match) · 12 history records