Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e13…dd11 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 698d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22,673 (-27%) realized −$21,744 · open −$929
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,916per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$27,727
sports 5% +$4,321
culture 0% −$200
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 16 -36.4% -42.4% 38% 19% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.4% 19% -34.4%
10% ← realistic here -47.9% 19% -40.6%
15% -53.0% 12% -46.4%
20% -57.6% 12% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,628 vs −$3,244 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

698d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$21,744
Unrealized−$929
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage698d
Avg bet$4,916
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ $930 $1 −$929 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $391 −$385 -98%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $598 −$580 -97%
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 15 $95 $0 +0%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 15 $3,481 −$2,393 -69%
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 15 $6,350 −$2,865 -45%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $3,995 +$4,321 +108%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $17,810 +$5,305 +30%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 30 $38,636 −$17,089 -44%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Oct 14 $5,214 −$5,214 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Oct 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Oct 05 $350 −$350 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Oct 05 $4,008 −$3,208 -80%
Hypurr NFT airdrop by November 30? Oct 05 $1,100 +$46 +4%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole? Oct 04 $200 −$156 -78%
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 12 $103 +$91 +89%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $467 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $477 1h
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 77¢ $391 57d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 58¢ $598 57d
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY No 99¢ $95 165d
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY Yes 91¢ $101 165d
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY Yes 91¢ $592 165d
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY Yes 91¢ $217 165d
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY Yes 91¢ $101 165d
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,113 165d
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY Yes 81¢ $881 165d
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY No 52¢ $2,600 165d
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY No 90¢ $899 165d
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY No 91¢ $2,326 165d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 32¢ $707 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 32¢ $2 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 32¢ $65 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 32¢ $75 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 55¢ $1,700 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 60¢ $86 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 60¢ $40 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY Anyones Legend 34¢ $55 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY Anyones Legend 52¢ $114 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 49¢ $98 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 49¢ $147 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 49¢ $220 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 49¢ $232 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 49¢ $236 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 49¢ $3 236d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 49¢ $196 236d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 129 history records