Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e17…2301 sports 198 markets active 2h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,903 (-31%) realized −$15,824 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%40W / 157L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$397est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days−$151
14 days−$151
30 days−$753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$7,584
other 37% −$8,189
crypto 1% −$315
world 0% −$214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 152 -47.0% -52.0% 13% 13% -54.6%
all 197 -8.6% -17.3% 20% 20% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 20% -38.4%
10% -25.2% 20% -44.3%
15% -32.4% 20% -49.7%
20% -39.1% 19% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$455 vs −$219 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$15,824
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses40 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$397
Open positions1
Markets (closed)197 / 198
History coverage368d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $142 $64 −$79 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $155 −$151 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $133 −$130 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $311 −$304 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $167 −$163 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $256 −$250 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $248 −$241 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $92 −$90 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $212 −$208 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $341 −$333 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $331 −$322 -97%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 24 $85 +$246 +288%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $45 −$43 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $219 −$214 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $119 −$116 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $145 −$142 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 20 $252 −$248 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $43 −$41 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 20 $115 −$113 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $236 +$389 +165%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $509 −$497 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 19 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 May 18 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 18 $256 −$250 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 18 $203 −$199 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 18 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $420 +$618 +147%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner May 18 $252 −$247 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner May 16 $105 −$102 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $361 −$352 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 15 $452 −$444 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $180 −$176 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $90 −$87 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $95 −$92 -97%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $103 −$100 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $408 +$692 +170%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $92 +$454 +492%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 11 $14 −$14 -97%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $68 −$66 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 10 $397 −$390 -98%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $823 −$813 -99%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO? May 09 $59 −$58 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $146 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 5¢ $155 35h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 11¢ $133 16d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 0¢ $1 22d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY HANJIN BRION 22¢ $2 23d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY HANJIN BRION 23¢ $310 23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 28d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 9¢ $167 29d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 25¢ $1 35d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C BUY Nongshim Red Force 16¢ $256 35d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff BUY Dplus KIA 14¢ $248 35d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 18¢ $92 35d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 35¢ $212 36d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 4¢ $2 36d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 16¢ $341 36d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY DN SOOPers 3¢ $2 36d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY DN SOOPers 3¢ $329 36d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas 99¢ $331 36d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 25¢ $85 36d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi BUY Weibo Gaming 5¢ $43 38d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi BUY Weibo Gaming 3¢ $1 38d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 17¢ $219 38d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 25¢ $119 39d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 19¢ $145 39d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 55¢ $252 40d
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Kiwoom DRX 4¢ $25 40d
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Kiwoom DRX 4¢ $17 40d
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner BUY Kiwoom DRX 19¢ $115 40d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q SELL Nongshim Red Force 100¢ $625 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.60 · official $63.60 (match) · 371 history records