Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
8E 0x8e19…d2b0 sports 867 markets active 15h ago coverage 108d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,097 (+6%) realized +$8,097 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%492W / 375L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$1,424est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$24
14 days+$675
30 days+$4,312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$6,971
other 1% −$391
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +1.2% -8.4% 53% 46% -9.7%
≤30d 288 +25.0% +13.1% 57% 52% -1.6%
≤90d 716 +32.1% +19.5% 58% 53% -3.0%
all 867 +29.6% +17.2% 57% 51% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.2% 51% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here +6.0% 43% -13.8%
15% -4.2% 37% -22.2%
20% -13.6% 30% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$112 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8,097
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses492 / 375
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$1,424
Open positions0
Markets (closed)867 / 867
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$148
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 867 Trades
no open positions (159 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $216 −$212 -98%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $499 −$492 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $57 −$55 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Jun 15 $9 +$3 +38%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $74 +$46 +62%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $118 +$26 +22%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$13 +92%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $17 +$23 +134%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $821 +$71 +9%
Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $83 +$197 +237%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $81 +$39 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $131 −$129 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $931 +$334 +36%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $183 −$180 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,030 +$356 +35%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $126 +$35 +27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $238 −$3 -1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $122 +$78 +63%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs XLG Gaming (+4.5) Jun 13 $125 +$131 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $155 +$108 +69%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $178 +$269 +151%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $160 −$12 -8%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $92 −$6 -7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $231 +$292 +127%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $360 +$279 +78%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $163 +$118 +73%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $353 +$21 +6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,183 +$252 +21%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $98 +$64 +65%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $14 −$13 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $110 −$110 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $166 +$313 +189%
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $43 +$43 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -97%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Jun 12 $6 +$14 +226%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $427 −$421 -99%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $11 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $295 +$214 +72%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $196 −$196 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $908 +$125 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $21 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $19 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $57 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $19 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 20¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 20¢ $4 16h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $6 16h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 25¢ $183 17h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 35¢ $33 17h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 42¢ $224 17h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 21¢ $7 17h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 68¢ $30 19h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 68¢ $32 19h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 67¢ $68 19h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 65¢ $39 19h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 65¢ $10 19h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 65¢ $69 19h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 64¢ $19 19h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 21¢ $10 19h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 24¢ $1 19h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 24¢ $1 19h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 24¢ $2 19h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $43 19h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $12 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 25h
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) SELL MARKandLARRY 35¢ $10 26h
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) SELL MARKandLARRY 35¢ $2 27h
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) BUY MARKandLARRY 25¢ $6 38h
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) BUY MARKandLARRY 24¢ $2 38h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch - Map 2 Winner SELL OLDBOYS- 44¢ $28 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records