Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:51:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e1c…a9a5
sports · 639 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,127 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,116 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,097
Realized−$1,116
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses291 / 357
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions231
Markets (closed)648 / 639
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day755.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 231 History 648 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,143
7 days−$1,116
14 days−$1,116
30 days−$1,116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 95¢ 98¢ $68 $70 +$3 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes 72¢ 57¢ $36 $29 −$7 (-20%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 77¢ 78¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 41¢ 22¢ $31 $16 −$15 (-48%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 90¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+72%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 41¢ 42¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 96¢ 96¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 60¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Switzerland 31¢ 52¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+66%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 40¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-12%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 87¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes 40¢ 22¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Luka Mikrut Jun 13 $1 −$1 -57%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Londrina EC: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Gibraltar (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -85%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 −$1 -18%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry Jun 13 $4 −$4 -105%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-04-01? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
CA Boston River vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% −$200
other 31% −$184
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 0m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $1 2m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 72¢ $1 3m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $1 4m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1 4m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 82¢ $2 5m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 77¢ $1 6m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 82¢ $1 6m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 81¢ $1 7m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 99¢ $3 8m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $1 10m
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 52¢ $1 10m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 11m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $1 11m
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 11m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $2 11m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 11m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $4 11m
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 52¢ $1 11m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 12m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $2 12m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 77¢ $1 13m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 99¢ $2 13m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $1 14m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $1 15m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 18m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 75¢ $1 19m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 99¢ $1 19m
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 648 -17.0% -24.9% 45% 33% -32.1%
≤30d 648 -17.0% -24.9% 45% 33% -32.1%
≤90d 648 -17.0% -24.9% 45% 33% -32.1%
all 648 -17.0% -24.9% 45% 33% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover755.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 33% -32.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 25% -38.6%
15% -38.7% 17% -44.5%
20% -44.7% 12% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,097.39 · official $1,096.95 (match) · 3500 history records