Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8e1e…aeac sports 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$614 (+12%) realized +$618 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%71W / 50L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days+$56
14 days+$87
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$298
sports 42% +$310
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +26.8% +14.7% 80% 80% +2.4%
≤30d 7 +29.2% +16.9% 86% 86% +5.9%
≤90d 7 +29.2% +16.9% 86% 86% +5.9%
all 121 +6.3% -3.8% 59% 57% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 57% +1.4%
10% -13.0% 53% -8.3%
15% -21.4% 47% -17.2%
20% -29.1% 38% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$30 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$618
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses71 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage178d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$97 -64%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$34 +46%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$8 +25%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $50 −$47 -94%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $50 −$38 -77%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $70 −$50 -72%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $85 +$44 +52%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $100 +$7 +7%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $35 +$44 +127%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $40 +$26 +64%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $53 +$34 +64%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 07 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $24 −$15 -62%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $20 −$7 -35%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $25 −$1 -2%
Utah vs. Lightning Jan 27 $32 +$22 +70%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $30 +$35 +117%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Red Wings vs. Jets Jan 25 $30 +$34 +113%
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets Jan 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $40 −$36 -91%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Blues vs. Stars Jan 24 $30 +$22 +72%
Devils vs. Canucks Jan 24 $50 +$19 +38%
Flyers vs. Avalanche Jan 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Islanders vs. Canucks Jan 21 $30 +$23 +75%
Capitals vs. Avalanche Jan 20 $30 +$14 +47%
Flyers vs. Golden Knights Jan 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Blues vs. Oilers Jan 19 $30 +$22 +72%
Senators vs. Red Wings Jan 19 $40 +$34 +85%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $40 −$31 -77%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $50 +$12 +25%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $45 −$11 -25%
Predators vs. Golden Knights Jan 18 $30 +$15 +52%
Oilers vs. Canucks Jan 18 $50 +$31 +61%
Kings vs. Ducks Jan 18 $40 +$34 +86%
Bruins vs. Blackhawks Jan 18 $50 +$43 +85%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 17 $30 −$7 -24%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $40 +$28 +69%
Rangers vs. Flyers Jan 17 $40 +$9 +24%
Blue Jackets vs. Penguins Jan 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $54 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $76 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 7d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-02-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 128d
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-02-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 128d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 128d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 128d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 128d
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 128d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 128d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 49¢ $40 134d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 135d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 135d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 135d
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-02-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 135d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 56¢ $45 135d
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 135d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 135d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 135d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.83 · official $45.83 (match) · 255 history records