Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e1f…bbd6 weather 1046 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$168 (+0%) realized +$165 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate92%948W / 79L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$849now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$7
14 days+$24
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -0.5% -10.0% 81% 3% -9.3%
≤30d 407 -0.5% -10.0% 87% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 1023 +0.2% -9.3% 92% 1% -9.3%
all 1027 +0.2% -9.3% 92% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$849
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses948 / 79
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1027 / 1046
History coverage93d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1027 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $135 $137 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $110 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $86 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 23? No 99¢ 100¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 40°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or higher on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 22? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 21? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 23? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 20 $9 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $169 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $15 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $509 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $24 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $38 −$5 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $223 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $179 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 40°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 23? SELL No 93¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $27 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $39 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 23? BUY No 83¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 23? BUY No 83¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $66 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 83¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 91¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $11 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $18 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 89¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 98¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $15 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $9 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $15 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 33h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $15 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $10 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $848.51 · official $848.51 (match) · 2674 history records