Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e1f…991b weather 399 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$327 (+140%) realized +$33 · open +$294
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%131W / 290L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day152.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$70
14 days+$96
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 52% +$67
other 28% +$415
sports 10% +$3
tech 4% −$3
politics 3% +$21
world 1% +$1
culture 1% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+67.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 +52.7% +38.2% 29% 28% -47.2%
≤30d 421 +84.8% +67.2% 31% 30% -28.6%
≤90d 421 +84.8% +67.2% 31% 30% -28.6%
all 421 +84.8% +67.2% 31% 30% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +67.2% 30% -28.6%
10% ← realistic here +51.2% 29% -35.4%
15% +36.6% 27% -41.7%
20% +23.2% 24% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +85% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +119% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$294
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses131 / 290
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions107
Markets (closed)421 / 399
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day152.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 107 History 421 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-01? Yes 4¢ 50¢ $2 $25 +$23 (+1137%)
Will Shandong Taishan win Chinese Super League? Yes 1¢ 44¢ $0 $21 +$20 (+4350%)
Will Qingdao West Coast win Chinese Super League? Yes 1¢ 42¢ $0 $20 +$19 (+4150%)
Will Henan win Chinese Super League? Yes 1¢ 41¢ $0 $19 +$19 (+4000%)
Will Beijing Guoan win Chinese Super League? Yes 1¢ 45¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4400%)
Will Shanghai Shenhua win Chinese Super League? Yes 1¢ 44¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4350%)
Will Zhejiang win Chinese Super League? Yes 1¢ 44¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4350%)
Will Liaoning Tieren win Chinese Super League? Yes 1¢ 44¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4350%)
Exact Score: CDT RealOruro 2 - 0 FC Universitario? Yes 6¢ 50¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+741%)
Exact Score: CDT RealOruro 1 - 0 FC Universitario? Yes 6¢ 50¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+741%)
Exact Score: CDT RealOruro 2 - 3 FC Universitario? Yes 6¢ 50¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+741%)
Exact Score: CDT RealOruro 3 - 3 FC Universitario? Yes 6¢ 49¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+733%)
Exact Score: CDT RealOruro 2 - 2 FC Universitario? Yes 6¢ 48¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+724%)
Will Yunnan Yukun win Chinese Super League? Yes 0¢ 45¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+0%)
Will Shenzhen Peng City win Chinese Super League? Yes 0¢ 45¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+0%)
Will Shanghai Port win Chinese Super League? Yes 0¢ 44¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+0%)
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong win Chinese Super League? Yes 0¢ 44¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+0%)
Will Qingdao Hainiu win Chinese Super League? Yes 0¢ 44¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+0%)
Will Wuhan Three Towns win Chinese Super League? Yes 0¢ 44¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+0%)
Will Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win Chinese Super League? Yes 0¢ 43¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+0%)
Exact Score: CDT RealOruro 2 - 1 FC Universitario? Yes 6¢ 50¢ $1 $5 +$5 (+742%)
Exact Score: CDT RealOruro 0 - 2 FC Universitario? Yes 6¢ 50¢ $1 $5 +$5 (+742%)
Exact Score: CDT RealOruro 1 - 3 FC Universitario? Yes 6¢ 50¢ $1 $5 +$5 (+742%)
Exact Score: CDT RealOruro 3 - 2 FC Universitario? Yes 6¢ 50¢ $1 $5 +$5 (+742%)
Exact Score: CDT RealOruro 0 - 0 FC Universitario? Yes 6¢ 50¢ $1 $5 +$5 (+742%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 302 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mikal Bridges lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Saracens win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Miles McBride lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F1 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Creed III" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Mikal Bridges lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Keldon Johnson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Alexander Albon achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Exact Score: FK Haugesund 3 - 2 Ranheim? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song f Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will De'Aaron Fox lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Oliver Bearman achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jose Alvarado lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Luke Kornet lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Valtteri Bottas achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Andrea Lowe be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Devin Vassell lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Exact Score: Audax CS Italiano 1 - 3 CD La Serena? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Dylan Harper lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Sherman Tylawsky be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 202 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Carter Bryant lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Fernando Alonso achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will UNICS Kazan win VTB United League? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Pierre Gasly achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F1 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will George Forbush be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F1 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Nico Hulkenberg achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "The Boroughs" be the top global Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will xAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Rodri join Al-Hilal? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 6¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.95 · official $319.96 (match) · 1737 history records