Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e21…6c0e world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% $0
other 14% −$6
sports 9% −$1
politics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.8% -10.3% 32% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 19 -0.8% -10.3% 32% 0% -9.5%
all 40 -1.6% -11.0% 40% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 2% -10.3%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.9%
15% -27.3% 2% -26.7%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage482d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $18 −$2 -9%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $44 +$2 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 -25%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $52 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 25 $6 $0 -2%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $6 $0 +1%
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 21 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $6 $0 +5%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 16 $6 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on April 11? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Mar 20 $8 $0 +1%
Bruins vs. Hurricanes Mar 05 $13 −$4 -35%
Ducks vs. Canucks Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Sharks vs. Sabres Mar 03 $20 −$7 -37%
UAB vs. Rice Mar 03 $9 +$11 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $2 2h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $18 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $33 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 30h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 40h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 40h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 40h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $47 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $23 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $47 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $48 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $46 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $42 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records