Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e24…682f
crypto · 28 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$24 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$58
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)21 / 28
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 7 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $27 −$5 (-15%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-19%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 59¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 Under 35¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Under 45¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Heretics 40¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 46¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 30¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 49¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 38¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 48¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 34¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 34¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 39¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$14 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +262%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $15 +$16 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 42% −$24
other 35% +$3
sports 24% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $14 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 BUY Under 35¢ $5 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 22¢ $2 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $3 17h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 28¢ $2 25h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 26h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 26h
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.3% -5.6% 48% 48% -15.9%
≤30d 21 +4.3% -5.6% 48% 48% -15.9%
≤90d 21 +4.3% -5.6% 48% 48% -15.9%
all 21 +4.3% -5.6% 48% 48% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 48% -15.9%
10% -14.7% 48% -23.9%
15% -22.9% 43% -31.3%
20% -30.5% 38% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.57 · official $57.57 (match) · 51 history records