Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e25…123c crypto 101 markets active 9h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$927 (-7%) realized −$1,018 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate34%32W / 62L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$996now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$373
14 days−$888
30 days−$1,101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$33
crypto 19% −$641
other 16% +$6
sports 8% −$407
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -4.9% -13.9% 36% 24% -19.2%
≤30d 85 -19.6% -27.2% 33% 24% -22.1%
≤90d 94 -17.9% -25.7% 34% 21% -18.1%
all 94 -17.9% -25.7% 34% 21% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 21% -18.1%
10% -32.8% 19% -25.9%
15% -39.3% 16% -33.1%
20% -45.2% 15% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$37 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$996
Realized−$1,018
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses32 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions7
Markets (closed)94 / 101
History coverage40d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $286 $314 +$28 (+10%)
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? No 83¢ 84¢ $268 $272 +$4 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $185 $196 +$11 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $146 $193 +$47 (+32%)
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 59¢ 60¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 32¢ 33¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 45¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $296 −$46 -16%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $93 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$25 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,000 −$36 -4%
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $159 −$14 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $262 −$65 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Jun 11 $1,137 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$13 +252%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$168 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$29 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 09 $224 +$56 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $64 +$44 +68%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $29 −$8 -28%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $56 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? Jun 09 $63 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $79 −$50 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$9 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $3 8h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $10 9h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $13 20h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $13 23h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $13 26h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 43¢ $9 31h
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 59¢ $13 31h
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 32¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 35h
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 32¢ $6 36h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 22¢ $22 37h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 45¢ $9 37h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 45¢ $3 38h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 45¢ $3 38h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 45¢ $0 38h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 45¢ $4 40h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 22¢ $22 41h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 42¢ $1 44h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 42¢ $8 44h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $47 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $995.88 · official $995.88 (match) · 658 history records