Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8E 0x8e2a…c4b3 crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate70%44W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$8
crypto 11% +$1
sports 3% −$6
culture 1% −$5
politics 1% −$2
tech 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 63 +0.6% -9.0% 70% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -9.8%
10% -17.7% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -32.9% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses44 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage576d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $18 in March? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? Apr 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 01 $2 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in December? Jan 01 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 04 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 04 $27 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 04 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $8 $0 +1%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $5,887 −$6 -0%
Lakers vs. Grizzlies Apr 02 $7 +$8 +117%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 13 $10 $0 +0%
Solana above $175 on February 28? Mar 13 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1? Feb 09 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jan 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 22 $29 $0 -0%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Dec 26 $21 −$4 -20%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $25 −$4 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $64 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 29d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $19 61d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $30 62d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 92d
Will Chainlink reach $18 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 92d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $36 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4 120d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $19 120d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $41 122d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $7 148d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $12 149d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 149d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $2 181d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 181d
Will Solana reach $210 in December? BUY No 99¢ $50 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $52 212d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $7 241d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 99¢ $19 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $33 243d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $11 272d
Will Solana reach $300 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $33 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 300d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $13 301d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $39 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $10 333d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $45 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 362d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 99¢ $27 365d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.59 · official $63.59 (match) · 136 history records