Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

8E 0x8e2b…2619 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$15 (-13%) realized −$14 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$7 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage

Net worth$69

Realized−$14

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)2 / 8

History coverage92d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	44¢	44¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Mar 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Mar 16	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND	BUY	2¢	$15	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND	BUY	1¢	$15	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	44¢	$20	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$20	1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$20	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$5	91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$10	92d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.68 · official $98.68 · 9 history records