Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e2c…018b weather 1085 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$505 (+1%) realized +$500 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1055W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day78.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$851now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$24
14 days+$17
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$146
other 0% +$16
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 1% -9.8%
≤30d 704 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 1069 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 1069 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$36 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$851
Realized+$500
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1055 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1069 / 1085
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day78.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1069 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 96°F or higher on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 94°F or higher on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 20? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 84°F or higher on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? No 98¢ 97¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? No 97¢ 97¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 2? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 28? Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on June 20? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 20? Jun 19 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? Jun 19 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 19 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 19? Jun 19 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $45 22m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $13 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $33 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $13 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $46 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $45 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $45 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $45 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $45 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $17 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $46 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $45 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $45 11h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $45 11h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $14 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $850.96 · official $850.14 (match) · 3500 history records