Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8E 0x8e2f…4ab8 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$130 (+18%) realized +$160 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$70
sports 7% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+61.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +78.2% +61.2% 100% 100% +40.7%
≤30d 2 +78.2% +61.2% 100% 100% +40.7%
≤90d 2 +78.2% +61.2% 100% 100% +40.7%
all 2 +78.2% +61.2% 100% 100% +40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.2% 100% +40.7%
10% +45.8% 100% +27.3%
15% +31.7% 100% +15.0%
20% +18.8% 50% +3.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$385
Realized+$160
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $390 $363 −$28 (-7%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $233 +$101 +43%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$57 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $147 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $90 11h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $165 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $208 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $45 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $81 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $126 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $108 13h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $107 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 46¢ $22 15h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 46¢ $9 15h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 46¢ $20 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.00 · official $385.00 (match) · 13 history records