Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e38…79a0 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-6%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$19
other 12% +$8
sports 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -36.9% -42.9% 39% 14% -13.1%
≤30d 28 -36.9% -42.9% 39% 14% -13.1%
≤90d 28 -36.9% -42.9% 39% 14% -13.1%
all 28 -36.9% -42.9% 39% 14% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 14% -13.1%
10% -48.4% 11% -21.4%
15% -53.4% 11% -29.0%
20% -58.0% 11% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +3%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +62%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $14 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 1h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 10h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.43 · official $6.43 (match) · 55 history records