Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e3e…76cb sports 698 markets active 6d ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-1%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate51%354W / 344L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$51
14 days−$26
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$82
crypto 15% −$15
other 5% −$4
politics 1% −$9
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$31
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -5.3% -14.3% 38% 1% -15.0%
≤30d 252 -0.9% -10.3% 56% 38% -10.5%
≤90d 545 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 43% -13.1%
all 698 -0.7% -10.1% 51% 40% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 40% -10.8%
10% -18.7% 30% -19.3%
15% -26.6% 17% -27.1%
20% -33.8% 12% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses354 / 344
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)698 / 698
History coverage100d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 698 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $10 −$2 -24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -13%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -43%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -33%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -19%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -10%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 67¢ $8 5d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 87¢ $10 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $5 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $9 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $9 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $6 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $7 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 1908 history records