Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8E 0x8e3f…6500 sports 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,564 (+24%) realized +$1,667 · open −$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%96W / 153L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days+$260
14 days+$349
30 days+$1,309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$716
other 44% +$490
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -17.4% -25.2% 30% 30% +0.5%
≤30d 249 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 39% +10.3%
≤90d 249 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 39% +10.3%
all 249 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 39% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 39% +10.3%
10% -21.8% 39% -0.3%
15% -29.4% 39% -9.9%
20% -36.3% 38% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$14 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized+$1,667
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses96 / 153
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions6
Markets (closed)249 / 255
History coverage27d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals No 84¢ 91¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+8%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 41¢ 20¢ $150 $75 −$75 (-50%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 57¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 31¢ 6¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-79%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$12 +242%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$14 +70%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 25 $16 −$7 -44%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$14 +268%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$20 +64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$37 +73%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$15 +76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$17 +82%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$5 -48%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$22 +209%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$13 +61%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$10 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 84¢ $203 1h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals SELL Yes 18¢ $7 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $35 2h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $35 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 7h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 7h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $21 7h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 31¢ $52 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 7h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 11h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $20 11h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $20 11h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 11h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 11h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 66¢ $19 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $50 24h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 26h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.30 · official $322.06 (match) · 517 history records