Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:06:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8E 0x8e3f…a59c crypto 1287 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$761 (+3%) realized +$761 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate88%1137W / 150L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$100
14 days+$250
30 days+$604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$674
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 201 -2.2% -11.6% 87% 14% -8.6%
≤30d 715 +2.4% -7.4% 90% 18% -7.1%
≤90d 1287 +2.1% -7.6% 88% 19% -7.2%
all 1287 +2.1% -7.6% 88% 19% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 19% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 13% -16.0%
15% -24.5% 9% -24.2%
20% -31.9% 7% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$761
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1137 / 150
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1287 / 1287
History coverage63d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1287 Trades
no open positions (99 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$22 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $54 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $46 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $38 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $57 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $57 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $57 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $47 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $12 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.00 · official $120.00 (match) · 2538 history records