Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e41…e758 weather 479 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$490 (-1%) realized −$493 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%177W / 295L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$14
14 days−$29
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 36% +$2
crypto 18% +$39
other 13% −$5
world 12% −$527
culture 5% +$135
politics 4% −$146
economics 4% −$13
finance 4% −$2
tech 3% −$56
sports 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +43.8% +30.1% 38% 25% -5.5%
≤30d 145 +0.9% -8.7% 18% 6% -11.5%
≤90d 354 -3.0% -12.2% 30% 3% -11.0%
all 472 -2.2% -11.6% 38% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 3% -10.1%
10% -20.0% 2% -18.7%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.8% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$493
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses177 / 295
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)472 / 479
History coverage155d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 472 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 20 $146 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $95 $0 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $11 −$3 -25%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $96 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $207 +$5 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $173 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 10 $111 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 10 $102 −$13 -13%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 9h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $147 26h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 47h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 72¢ $146 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 10¢ $1 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY $1 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY $1 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a BUY $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.50 · official $69.90 (match) · 1992 history records