Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e48…9b0b sports 319 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$471 (-4%) realized −$424 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%112W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$47
14 days+$80
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$117
other 34% −$687
crypto 1% −$14
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -27.2% -34.1% 17% 17% +3.4%
≤30d 87 -17.5% -25.4% 24% 24% -11.0%
≤90d 227 -8.1% -16.8% 34% 34% -11.7%
all 315 -7.3% -16.2% 36% 34% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 34% -13.4%
10% -24.2% 32% -21.7%
15% -31.5% 31% -29.3%
20% -38.2% 28% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$26 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$424
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses112 / 203
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions4
Markets (closed)315 / 319
History coverage130d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Pakistan 31¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 +$11 +209%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 +$14 +267%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $25 +$5 +18%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$31 +596%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -48%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +75%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $10 +$75 +727%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $0 $0 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -27%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -57%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $6 +$40 +642%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 31¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 21h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 22h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 25h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 44¢ $30 32h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 36¢ $25 34h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 44h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 44h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 47h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 47h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 516 history records