Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e48…78ac crypto 1600 markets active 3d ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,981 (-7%) realized −$1,981 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%782W / 818L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day151.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$444
14 days+$321
30 days−$1,353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,353
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 493 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 50% -6.1%
≤30d 1600 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 48% -13.8%
≤90d 1600 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 48% -13.8%
all 1600 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 48% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 48% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 46% -22.1%
15% -28.6% 45% -29.6%
20% -35.6% 44% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,981
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses782 / 818
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1600 / 1600
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day151.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1600 Trades
no open positions (356 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$11 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$11 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$24 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$21 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$25 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$15 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$14 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$13 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$15 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$15 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $44 −$22 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$11 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$9 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$17 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$9 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$18 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$14 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$5 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records