Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e4a…28ad other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$291 (+14%) realized −$94 · open +$385
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$1,662now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$379
sports 8% −$26
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +6.6% -3.5% 40% 33% +4.3%
≤30d 19 +1.9% -7.8% 32% 26% +0.5%
≤90d 33 -25.2% -32.3% 27% 18% -13.8%
all 33 -25.2% -32.3% 27% 18% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 18% -13.8%
10% -38.8% 18% -22.0%
15% -44.7% 12% -29.6%
20% -50.1% 3% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$1,662
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$385
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)33 / 48
History coverage70d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $872 $1,192 +$320 (+37%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $70 $185 +$115 (+165%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 31¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+72%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 73¢ 56¢ $40 $30 −$9 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $38 $29 −$9 (-24%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 75¢ 68¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 71¢ 57¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 60¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 68¢ 57¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 80¢ 64¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 69¢ 30¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$19 +37%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $25 +$29 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 14 $30 $0 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $30 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Will GBP/USD hit 1.20 (Low) in 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$2 -23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will USD/JPY hit 140 (Low) in 2026? Jun 05 $7 −$1 -12%
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? Jun 05 $21 −$3 -16%
Will USD/JPY hit 180 (High) in 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$1 -11%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 05 $15 −$4 -25%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.10 (Low) in 2026? May 10 $17 −$2 -10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Apr 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Apr 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Boeing’s commercial airplane deliveries in Q1 2026 be above 145? Apr 15 $33 $0 +0%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Denver Nuggets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 N Apr 15 $12 −$11 -99%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $93 +$40 +43%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $55 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $54 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $68 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $68 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $39 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $225 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $28 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $29 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $19 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 77¢ $19 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 61¢ $30 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 66¢ $30 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $20 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 80¢ $20 5d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $26 5d
Will GBP/USD hit 1.20 (Low) in 2026? SELL No 61¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $28 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 6d
Will USD/JPY hit 140 (Low) in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $7 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $39 14d
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? SELL No 51¢ $18 14d
Will USD/JPY hit 180 (High) in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $9 14d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 14d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 40d
Will EUR/USD hit 1.10 (Low) in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $15 40d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 52d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 52d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 52d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $64 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,662.35 · official $1,662.35 (match) · 160 history records