Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

8E 0x8e4b…3fc2 sports 3 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$385 (+26%) realized +$409 · open +$63

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +105% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip

Net edge+71%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$500per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$25est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$864now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+85.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+104.9%	+85.4%	100%	100%	+85.4%
≤30d	1	+104.9%	+85.4%	100%	100%	+85.4%
≤90d	1	+104.9%	+85.4%	100%	100%	+85.4%
all	1	+104.9%	+85.4%	100%	100%	+85.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+85.4%	100%	+85.4%
10%	+67.7%	100%	+67.7%
15%	+51.5%	100%	+51.5%
20%	+36.6%	100%	+36.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +105% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +105% · $-wt +105% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$409 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$864

Realized+$409

Unrealized+$63

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$25

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$500

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 6.5 Corners	Over	50¢	48¢	$500	$485	−$15 (-3%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Over	56¢	70¢	$301	$379	+$78 (+26%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$390	+$409	+105%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	40¢	$1	27m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	40¢	$10	28m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	40¢	$59	28m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	39¢	$27	28m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	39¢	$49	29m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	39¢	$29	29m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	39¢	$30	30m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$799	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	56¢	$601	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	48¢	$390	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 6.5 Corners	BUY Over	50¢	$508	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $864.24 · official $864.24 (match) · 11 history records