Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8E 0x8e4c…7e83 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% $0
world 22% $0
politics 16% +$1
economics 12% $0
crypto 8% $0
tech 4% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 46 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage454d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $30 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Jul 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 17 $23 $0 +2%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 17 $6 $0 -4%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or below on July 12? Jul 12 $6 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 10 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $17 $0 +1%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 25 $13 $0 +2%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 02 $13 $0 -0%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 29 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 26 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $29 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $29 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $22 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $30 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $22 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $31 34h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $34 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $34 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $30 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $30 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $33 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $33 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $19 25d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 336d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $4 336d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $4 336d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? SELL No 97¢ $6 336d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 96¢ $6 336d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 83¢ $5 336d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 83¢ $5 336d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $6 336d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records